Doncaster 15th Sept 2024

 Doncaster 2.05 ... Existent @ 9/1

Now 10lb lower than last win. Meets top weight Tees Spirit on 4lb better terms for a half length defeat at Sandown in June. Also 4lb lower than when 2 length behind Portland winner American Affair last month.

Now wearing eye shields for the first time and previously gone well on galloping tracks.

 Doncaster 2.40 ...  Thunder Blue @ 12/1

Sights lowered having contested Group /Listed contests last season, now 9lb lower, and doing best work last 3 runs late on over 6 fl. re-opposes Golden Mind on 14lb turn around in the weights from their Group2 Goodwood encounter when slightly hampered and this straight course should suit better.

 Doncaster 4.50 ... Lennox  @ 4/1

His return from a 150 day break when 3.5 length second at Yarmouth to the now 93 rated Fifty Nifty [Runs in the 2.40] stands above this 0-78 event. Returns from another 4 month break and Hayley Turner keeps the ride.

 Doncaster 5.25 ...  International Girl  E/W @ 33/1

Previous run here was over 7fl on Heavy ground in a class 2 event off this rating. 

Drops back into class 4 company only 2lb higher than last win, but 4 from 18 at 6fl. and 3 wins and 4 places from 12 in this class.

Beat Abate 1.25 length at Ripon in June, and though slightly worse at the weights, the jockeys 7lb claim negating the difference. 

 LUDLOW 3.28 ... FLIGHT OF FREEDOM @ 8/1     ...    Jazz King E/W @ 25/1 

Emma Lavelle is 4 from 11 here over past seasons with Tom |Bellamy on around a 30% strike rate.

 Flight of Freedom's run behind Favour and Fortune at Hereford last October looks all the better given that ones subsequent runs, 2nd in the Tolworth (Listed) then 6th to Slade Steel in the Supreme then success in the Grade2 Scottish Champion off 138. 

Beaten 8 lengths on her return at Huntingdon she wasn't disgraced behind in form Swinton winner Pickanumber, given how far that one won yesterday off 121. 

Doesn't meet any rival today rated as highly, but might have most to fear from last years winner Zucayan (3lb higher) and the second Him Malaya (5lb higher) or Gerard Mentor (10th)  12lb lower but looks out of form.

Cawthorn Banker's 6 length win last time out give him a 8lb hike but he did finish 3rd here in NH flat race .

Jazz King (E/W) or F/Cast selection, won a Chase here off this mark (110) and was rated 122,  2 seasons back, but done all but one race on soft/softer going. Jonathan Burke however won on 2 of 6 rides here in April and has around 30% strike rate for this yard showing the best returns on rides here.

EDIT: Jazz King NON RUNNER

PLUMPTON 3.15 ... MAGISTRATO @ 6/1

Been rated nearly a stone higher hurdling and has a 5th place here in a Class3 behind Our Champ which improved 21 lb.

 Magitrato's first run this year here, he was just found out by Anthony Honeyballs Something Special, which went on to win next time out at Cheltenham (Class3). 

Chase record read's 21426722 so been knocking on the door and the better of those runs on drying ground.

PLUMPTON 4.25 ... TRONADOR @ 18/1

Interesting to see if Olly Murphy can resume this geldings former zest as was rated 11lb higher in his prime and running in pattern company. He also runs Ilanz with Swinton winning jockey Dylan Johnson on board.

Lewis Saunders worthy of his 8lb claim with 2 winners this year for the yard, and come race time the 18/1 could be a steal if the trainer gets the required improvement from this former flat recruit in the last 5 weeks since leaving Gordon Elliot. This looks a whole lot easier than the William Hill G3 Premier H/Cap at Aintree.

NAHORI 28/1

NAHORI @ 28/1 NAAS ... 3.45 Sir Jack Thomas @ 16/1 looks really well handicapped having dropped 16lb since last August, where he meets today's favourite 'Janoobi' on 10lb better terms. He meets ' Loingseoir' 3lb worse from their encounter at the Curragh but met trouble in that apprentice contest and finished in front of him behind Zaphron, which was chucked in at the bottom of the weights last time off 8 stone and a 7lb claimer. Zaphron has been hit with a 15lb rise for that 6 length success, and though W.Hassett (claims 7lb) keeps the ride, he has to give SirJack 16lb. Last run out beaten less than 3 length behind winner 'Super Over' and the 2nd 'Brains', carries 5lb less plus another 5lb claim so should be real competitive today. After a bit more digging through the Form of Superover, brings me to 'NAHORI'. Robert Whearty worthy of his 5lb claim and that puts his mount at the foot of the weights with Sirjack Thomas. Nahori last timeout was beaten 4 length behind Lincoln Trial runner (2nd off 93) who was beaten a neck to 101 rated Kingdom Come. 3rd from that race , 'Freescape' (OR 104) finished 2nd twice since off 102. 2nd from that race, ' Hightimeyouwon' (87) went out to beat another subsequent winner 'Exquisite Acclaim' with SuperOver back in 3rd and given that Nahori is 28/1 ... I think it's been overlooked in the book and if running to form might be the steal of the day. On the form lines of NAHORI from its earlier race also at Dundalk, that contest has also thrown up a 2nd and 3 winners, albeit off marks mid 70's. Verhoyen often likes to lead and was 5th here off 3lb higher in November to a 73 rated winner and appears to love the Curragh so will pass him over. Spanish Tenor (front runner) has a bit to find on adjusted ratings, and Fiver Friday also likes to lead along and did OK in a fillies race here, but is taking on the boys. Janoobi , another front runner won on soft but those he beat at Cork haven't went on or attained much higher than a mid 70's rating. Taking into account jockeys claims, Janoobi (2nd first time out last 2 seasons) has to concede a lump of weight to SirJackThomas for a 2 length turnaround and Sirjack has a run under his belt and gets my vote from those 2 opposing. NAHORI @ 28/1 on ratings, I feel, should win this by a length or 2 and gets the Win vote, with Sirjack @ 16/1 ... or Janoobi for the runner up spot.

 NEWCASTLE 7.00 ... SAAHEQ @ 25/1

Sure to be run at a decent pace with WARMINSTER now dropping in trip who often breaks fast and goes to the front. He could set this up for a closer as he did with ALAPHDAL at Wolverhampton in January. He was giving him 2lb that day and now meets him 8lb better off so should turn that around and could be worth a interest now trying the minimum trip.

BLAZING HOT and PHEONIX STAR finished 3rd, 2nd here last October [Class 6] and are 2lb, and 1lb respectively higher today

Jim Goldie's runners are making hay at Newcastle this season since January, and WATER OF LEITH commands respect returning from a absence running off 12lb lower that his win here in a Class 3 6fl event 2 Yr back. Normally held up he has often missed the break and hit trouble in running, which doesn't bode well at 5 fl.

All in form, PHEONIX STAR plenty form here, ELZAAL, MEWS HOUSE, SIXCOR and LATIN FIVE all have recent form together, with ELZAAL and LATIN FIVE coming out best at the revised weights for distances beaten. Latin Five has yet to win from 9 A/W outings which is why he's on his lowest mark and gets in off bottom weight. He does meet Pheonix Star on 6lb better for a neck beating last September and should come on for last months return.

Paul Midgley's runner INDIAN SOUNDS, has its first run in this grade on the A/W having contested  Class 5/Class4 on turf but is only 1/14 on artificial surfaces and last turf wins were off similar marks to today.  His other runner ELZAAL has the better form on A/W and has 5, 5fl wins 8 places from 16 runs here, and had SAAHEQ behind when they last met in November.  All those wins in this grade and hovering around this mark so needs to improve today.

SAAHEQ meets ELZAAL on 3lb better today, but in November had been carried right and never got going. 

ELZAAL did however finish last to SAAHEQ here last May whilst going for a 4 timer upped in grade to a Class 5, where SAAHEQ was beaten ONLY around Half a length off a rating of 70. Both run off 5lb lower marks today, but on that outing I have to favour the Nichol's runner.

 SAAHEQ has 2 wins 2 places from 5 contests on A/W since leaving Amanda Perret's yard, and has won in higher grade off this rating so should still be certainly capable in these events. Running well after a absence has always been in better grade races but Mia Nichols has 2 wins and a place from those 5 A/W outing since joining this Yard, and she's still able to claim a valuable 5lb keeping her mount at the bottom of the weight range.

Yes, it's a gamble and has to be taken on trust SAAHEQ will be fit enough tonight,  but plenty to like about his chances in one of the easiest events he's contested for some time!

NEWCASTLE 6.30 ... STAR JASMINE @ 4/1

Well bred Filly which trainer is doing well in Maidens current season with this Jockey.

NEWCASTLE 7.30 ... TORCHLIGHT @ 9/2

Runs off the same mark as last week when contesting a Class 2 Lingfield H/cap running on over 7fl. She ran here in November and at |Kempton both over the mile not beaten far both times in which winners have come form both events. Taking on the boys but George Boughey doing real well and Billy Loughnane has around 25% strike rate for the trainer.

VELLNER @ 33/1

 Kempton 4.24 VELLNER ... E/W @ 33/1

MAYSONG looks a worthy favourite after his run off 3lb higher behind Borgi on penultimate outing. But the price looks skinny with his only win here over 7fl 5 years ago from 27 A/W runs 😶

VELLNER however looks worthy of a E/W punt as he was rated 92 in Ireland after winning the Curragh maiden, and was competing against rivals rated in the high 80's mid 90's thereafter in better races than this.

Been running over between 10 to 12 furlongs and dropped a massive 20lb since last spring/summer

His 11th placed effort here in November gone was a 0-95 Class 3, he was off 13lb higher than today. He made decent Inroads from 6fl to the mile marker until the last half furlong fading when his chance gone.

Better going right handed and surely got a race of this nature in him off what looks a real winable mark today.

STATELY HOME @ 6/1 has decent 25% Win and Place stats here off around this rating and 50% of all right handed runs been in the money and would be my win choice and f/cast selection!

Tricky contest with 7lb seperating the runners