Cape Tribulation looks the most likely winner of this, having had yesterday's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (grade 1) winner 'Ogee' 5 length in arrears in November, he went on to demolish the field in a grade 2 hurdle at Doncaster. His last time out 5th in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham he was hampered slightly 2 out and weakened thereafter.
This drop in trip shouldn't inconvenience and he did run well last season to finish 3rd in the Champion Standard on this card.
1 point win
Not really prone to backing 2 in a race, but Emma Lavelle is an underrated trainer in my opinion, and her contender Bouggler is the one who could surprise at a nice price. It was only a 4 runner affair he won at Kempton but the authority in which he did after hitting a few on the way round was impressive to have a previous grade2 winner (Hell's Bay) 48 length in arrears.
He handles most conditions and his flat speed should hold him in good stead round here.
1 point win
plus 15 points
FULL RESULT>>
NEWCASTLE 2.35 ... SIR XAAR @ 14/1
Giganticus returned from a winter break to win this last year off 8lb lower and could run well again but meets (the 1 & 1/2 length 4th) Ceremonial Jade 11lb worse this time and Sir Xaar (9th) on 21lb worse for the 3 & 1/2 length deficit he was behind. From a handiapping point Sir Xarr should finish a length in front of Ceremonial Jade and at least 4 length in front of Giganticus, who trading around the 11/4 mark is a joke!
Sir Xaar has gone well fresh in the past at this very track when off top weight he gave Balakiref 15lb and finished 2nd.
Today he is at the right end of the H/cap with only 8St 5lb to carry, and considering he was running off marks as high as 109 in group company a couple of seasons back, has his best chance in a while to get back in the winners enclosure.
Priced to go E/W if your on the cautious side ........ We go 1 point win
minus 1 point
NEWCASTLE 2.05 ... ODDSMAKER E/W @ 22/1
A lot of these aren't true milers and will struggle to stay if a good gallop ensues.
Oddsmaker runs over a variety of trips but can make the running and will still be staying on when some of these have cried enough. He hasn't a particularly good record fresh but has a consistent profile having won 7 and placed on 15 other occasions, and at the odds we could steal some value for a place.
1/2 point E/W or place only @ 5/1 betfair
minus 1 point
Will be updating for later races
F****g Superb well done mate
ReplyDeleteBah. Read this just after the Aintree opener. Nice work! Have added you to my blogroll, keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott, will look on over soon...
ReplyDeleteHitting the high notes again. Good couple of days. Impressive.
ReplyDeleteRegards,
Jason