Saturday, 10 April 2010

GRAND NATIONAL

My 3 for the National ... Good Luck whatever your on!

AINTREE 4.15 ... ROYAL ROSA E/W .... FLINTOFF E/W ... STATE OF PLAY Win

Flintoff missed the Irish National on Monday and gets in here on joint bottom weight. Having ran in previous staying events (Midlands and Scottish Nationals) the trip shouldn't be an issue, and had stablemate Mon Mome well in arrears in the later in 2008.
Comes out 16lb better with Mon Mome from that race and Mon Mome @ 14/1 and Flintoff @ 66/1 doesn't reflect their true chances IMO and @ 66/1 E/W on Flintoff the better option.

P/U

Royal Rosa squeezed into this last minute and ran a good race in the Becher Chase here in November on soft going when making late headway when the race was all but over.
Has won on soft but this better ground could be more to his liking having ran well in the Scottish national 2 seasons back the last time he had good going when 18lb out the handicap. A race where Flintoff was in front getting 2lb off Royal Rosa and 7lb out the weights. Off their correct marks here I would have Royal Rosa slightly the better.
This longer trip should suit more than the Becher as he was staying on in the Eider behind Comply Or Die (on Soft) also in 2008 and has been lightly raced since.
Off this weight I could see him winning this but as ever in this competitive event an E/W the option @ 66/1.

U/R

State Of Play, normally a sound jumper comes out 12lb better than last season behind Mon Mome and barring one small mistake before hampered in this last year, looks another stayer worth a wager on the better ground.
Win @ 16/1

3rd

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