COLONEL FLAY

SALISBURY 5.20 ... COLONEL FLAY 1 Pt E/W @ 18/1

Looks an open contest given the early morning prices and only 13lb between the field.
Current favourite Lombok looks held on form by Arab League from their encounter in June and Spencer beaten all runs to date on him.

The one catches my attention is Colonel Flay.
Negatives are that two runs this season has finished last of 5, last of 8, and that trainer not had a winner from 22 runners this season so a lot to be taken on faith.
Positive is Colonel Flay normally hits form around this time of year, and having ran here 10 times in total with 1 win, 4 places from 7 runs at this trip, and also a place here at 12fl, this galloping track clearly suits this runner.
Beaten between 1.5 and 2.5 length his 3 placed runs here at the end of last season off around 6lb higher in the ratings on good, gd/firm going he would rate an E/W chance at least on that form.

Last 2 of those were off top weight and at least gets weight from nearly half the field here. The penultimate was in this very race when 2 length off the winner, a neck 3rd behind 2nd place Arab League, yet off 6lb lower this time around, meets that rival on 20lb better terms and at 3 times the price looks the value selection of the two.

Last 3 runs, and his 2 this year been in Class4 events so down in Class which should help. Normally held up and will need things to drop right but a return to this lower grade off 6lb below last winning mark has a chance off the handicapper to go in again.

Colonel Flay 1 pt E/W @ 18/1 Coral, Bet365. ... 16/1 Others

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