RIPON 3.45 ... SIOUX RISING @ 20/1 P.Power, V.C. ... 40's exchanges
Kellys Eye has 3 wins from 3 here and though has to be respected back here looks to have it to do off top weight against his elders.
Midnight Martini ran up a hat trick last season but only won once at the trip, in the St Leger Yearling Stakes (for 2Yr Olds) and ran a decent 2nd here 3 runs back but the winner was only rated 80 and off her weight against the elders and opposite sex is another I reckon has it to prove.
Baldemar has course form of 1, 2, 1, 11 when with Karl Burke but any runner from Richard Fahey has to be considered at the moment. The last effort here when finished 11th behind Ruth Carr's Excusez Moi was off equal weights so could struggle giving that opponent 2lb today.
Mastership has normally needed a few runs when returning to racing and looks to hold Red Cape from their encounter in the Ayr Silver Cup but hasn't ran for 7 months.
Excusez Moi is 2 from 6 here and won under this jockey from a similar wide draw last May. He also appears to hold the upper hand with Baldemar from their respective runs behind Johnny Mudball even accounting for the fact Excusez Moi ran up the favoured stands rail.
Red Cape bids to repeat his win in this last year when making all the running off a 2lb higher mark, but James Sullivan takes off 3lb so in theory is 1lb lower today. His only other run here was in a Class2 beaten by R.Fahey's (89 rated) Johannes 3 weeks later off 88, and has the rails draw if electing to make the running again.
Go Nani Go is closely rated with Red Cape on their run in July at this venue but only meets him on 1lb better and struggled with the stiff finish at Pontefract so may find the incline here against him.
Jarrow is a bit difficult to assess as he meets Red Cape on 7lb better terms yet Kellys Eye on 3lb better but is yet to show much on turf and has to be passed over.
Gap Princess a previous Fahey inmate, was beaten over 5fl last time yet was just pipped at the post over 6fl at york with Red Cape 3 length behind. He ran (87 rated) Turnkey close here on soft going in a claimer before joining this stable and appears to have his preferred ground today but not best drawn in 11.
Sioux Rising has the best runs per win ratio with 2 from 4 at the distance, and does go well fresh having won 1st time up last season at Pontefract where she beat rivals rated mid 80's her final success. Her Ascot run was taking on horses who were more adept at running over 7fl to a mile so was always going to find it difficult against stouter stayers. Those in front were Invisible Man who won his next 2 before winning the Royal Hunt Cup and taking the ToteSport mile 2nd.
Khor Dubai (rated low 100's) and Suruor who won his next start beating yesterday Chester 1,2 Kyllachy Star & Brae Hill at Goodwood last season.
Sioux Rising's final start at Newmarket she raced away from the action as the far side runners came out victorious and she wasn't pushed hard by Jimmy Quinn in the final furlong when her chance gone.
Tony Hamilton (de'ja veux) bettered stable Jockey Hanagan yesterday and actually has a better strike rate for Richard Fahey here, and from a slightly better draw in stall5 and at 4 times the price looks good value near the foot of the handicap.
Only one below her, Rievaulx World who can front run could give her a good tow into the contest. He is yet to race beyond 5fl but won his maiden here eased down by 4.5 length yet has occasionally struggled to stay that trip since, albeit in some strong contests, so may leave the door open and drop away closing stages.
With proven ability to go well fresh and if running to her Pontefract form, Sioux Rising could easily win this and looks decent value for an E/W wager with the possibility to trade back stakes in running!
Sioux Rising 1 Pt E/W @ 20/1 Indusry SP ... 40's exchanges
2nd ... Full Result>>
1 month ago
Great selection, Anthony. I followed your tip and had a few quid on at 89/1 with Betfair and laid before the start for a good no-lose bet. Ran well.
ReplyDeleteRegards,
Jason
Done the same Jason ;)
ReplyDeletewas on early @ 34's :(
but topped up some more when I saw the odds had drifted later on to what I thought ridiculous, and ended up with combined odds around 70's win and 6.8 place
I layed the win in running at 6's & 4's so happy with the stakes and a bit more back for that and some nice profit for the place, but the win would have been so much nicer at that price :)
Cant win em all, but still trying
Anthony