NEWCASTLE RACES

NEWCASTLE 7.00 ... SPARTAN DUKE 1 pt E/W @ 25/1 S.James B.O.G. & Lads

Looks like a dry day at Newcastle so far with a slight breeze and the weather report reads the same, so hopefully no downpours from now till then!

Bravely looks a false favourite to me as the form lines have all pointed to 70 rated opposition so far at best, with the exception of Navajo Joe (was off 88 last summer) who he meets on slightly better terms.
Navajo Joe is 6 times the price yet looked like he was going the better of the 2 in their last encounter so his 25/1 looks generous compared to Bravely @ 4/1.
Navajo Joe has a 10lb pull in the weights with Celtic Lynn from last time but has a distance to make up for the revised terms.
There isn't much between Celtic Lynn and Borasco, and the later comes off best at the weights and is the one who I had as favourite for this. The race he won last season here looks all the better as the 4.5 length 2nd 'Yamal' has went on to greater than this, but his run behind The Osteopath here last time was disappointing on the softer going considering his previous best efforts have been with cut in the ground.
Mu'tab got a look over after getting the E/W money for us last time he ran, and on past evidence this looks his best trip but a line through Earlsmedic/Pavershooz brings Sparton Duke right into the equation.
Sparton Duke ran here last season in a 6fl event off 6lb higher, against (Ayr Silver Cup 5th) Marvellous Value (OR 87) where he was making up ground hand over fist to go down around 2 length after his customary slow start. All runs since have had a similar look to them, slow start and late headway. His penultimate run (1st of the season) the winner stole the march and took the 4 length advantage out the field from the off but the form is strong with 4 subsequent winners coming from that contest.
His last run favoured those up with the pace from the off, where he was behind the leaders all the way and when making his move was interrupted in his run (along with Ingleby Arch) when a straggler took their ground.
He is better than that finishing position suggests and looks to be crying out for this step up in trip.
Granted a clear passage I can see him winning this and this straight track should give the Jockey time to get a good position for what will no doubt be a late challenge.

Keep an eye on the betting in play, as though attractively priced for an E/W wager @ 25/1 could hit a lot higher in running.

minus 2 points

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